As reported by Donald Luskin, of SmartMoney, Professor Robert J. Gordon, an economist working on the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis (the group designated by the US Government to officially designate the start and end of recessions and other economic cycles), has stated the recession is over right now! Professor Gordon claims the decrease in claims for unemployment benefits tells him that the economy has begun to turn around.

The San Diego Daily Transcript reported that the unemployment rate in California and San Diego fell during the month of April. While the number of unemployed continued to rise, the rate of the increase has slowed. Employment is typically viewed as a lagging indicator of economic activity. Employers tend to delay hiring back workers until they are certain that economic activity is on the rise.

A leading indicator of economic growth is the real estate market. BusinessWeek.com asks, “Can a Housing Recovery Gain Ground?” Acknowledging that housing numbers are better in a monthly and year-over-year comparison, James Cooper of BusinessWeek.com states “the more than three-year plunge in home sales appears to have bottomed out.”

The members of the American Economic Association have decided that real estate is on the rebound. “Predictions by economists a year ago appear to be on target today, and that indicates good news for American homebuyers and sellers. Findings from a survey of economists in July 2008 on issues related to the hard-hit U.S. housing market are on the verge of being realized, according to the Keller Center at Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business” according to NewsWise.com.

Jeffrey Mezger, the CEO of KB Homes agrees that housing is ready for a recovery. Daniel Taub of Bloomberg News reported that Mr. Mezger is feeling more confident about housing prices and sales. “If you go to Southern Cal, as an example, we’re seeing a floor on pricing. We don’t see prices going down right now, which is a good thing, because then you can set a baseline.”

In another San Diego Daily Transcript report, Jen Lebron Kuhney highlighted the recent San Diego home sales activity. Home sales are up 10% and prices are up 3%, comparing April to March 2009 numbers. Low home prices in Southern California and good mortgage rates are driving buyers back to the market.

The Los Angeles Times reported that mortgage interest rates should stay low throughout 2009. In a story by Mary Ellen Podmolik, she reports “the lending industry’s consensus is that rates won’t change dramatically soon.” She attributes the prediction to a couple of factors, first the Fed continues to buy large quantities of mortgage backed securities and second, the weakened economy seems to assure that the government will continue to keep the money supply high.

As further evidence of the swelling interest in real estate sales, take a look at the little town of Manteca, California, a town with a population of 64,000 and a median income of $59,300. In the heart of the Central Valley of California, surrounded by some of the best agricultural land in the world, this little town is closing escrow on a home purchase every 6 hours and 18 minutes of every day in 2009! Now that sounds like a real estate industry moving forward!

Last thought … the California State Tax Credits continue to push home sale forward. The plan was originally designed to run for 12 months, through March 1, 2010. A $10,000 state tax credit for the purchase of a new home, it was suppose to re-invigorate home sales and construction. Well, over 60% of that allocated tax credit has already been claimed and we haven’t even made it through the first three months of the plan. I would say that the plan has been a resounding success.

I would also say that the real estate market in California has been to the bottom and it is moving on up, taking with it the economy of the state and maybe even the nation. So, the ruling of the referees is upheld, after review of the instant replay, its’ official … the recession is over!

The National Bureau of Economic Research said the U.S. likely entered into recession at the end of last year. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122815304785769411.html At 12 months, this recession has lasted longer than all but 4 of the previous 13 recognized recessions, going back to 1929. Given the anticipated turn-around happening sometime in late 2009 or early 2010, this recession will be the second longest recession, surpassed only by the “Great Depression” at the beginning of the last century!

Translating the “statistical recession” into real life examples, the jobs report for San Diego and Riverside County looks something like this … During the first 10 months of 2008, San Diego has lost 18,900 jobs and Riverside has lost 28,700 jobs. The unemployment rate in San Diego stands at 6.8% and in Riverside it has reached 9.5%. The biggest net job losses have come from the same two categories in both counties, Construction and Trade, Transportation & Utilities.

Construction job losses have accounted for 15% of the job losses in San Diego and 42% of the job losses in Riverside. Trade, Transportation & Utilities account for 67% of the job losses in San Diego and 44% of the job losses in Riverside. All totaled, Construction and Trade, Transportation & Utility job losses account for 40,000 of the 47,600 jobs lost in both counties.

(Trade, Transportation & Utility jobs are defined as jobs coming from wholesale and retail trade markets, motor vehicle, food, building materials, home furnishing retail stores, warehouses and distribution centers.)

Is it any surprise that the construction market is in a deep recession? Couple these numbers with the job losses in construction during 2007 (over 4,100 jobs in San Diego alone!) and it is not a pretty picture for the guys and gals wearing hard hats.

There is an old saying that goes something like “job losses in construction are a predecessor to a recession, and job gains in construction are a predecessor to recovery.” We need to get America back to work! We need to encourage investment in public infrastructure to promote job creation to end this recession. America, California, San Diego and Riverside Counties have put off infrastructure investment for too long. We have degraded utility systems, roadways and public buildings. Now is the time to invest in our future and to invest in our recovery.